POST-WAR INFLATION TARGETING: KEY CHALLENGES
نویسندگان
چکیده
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) suspended inflation targeting for the period martial law, but announced a return to it as soon situation allows. post-war normalization monetary policy in is historically unprecedented, since most known cases involve relaunch money circulation and adjustment banking activities, establishment central bank an institution designed eliminate macroeconomic preconditions internal conflicts. At same time, military conflicts are characterized by financing budget, spike increased dollarization, seigniorage may be optimal form compensation sudden loss tax revenues only limited extent. restoration will face number general challenges such as: acceleration inflation, delay non-core components, uncertainty regarding volume deficit after end law; degradation transmission; decline expectations likely strengthening pass-through effects. However, these more affect timing targeting. From technical point view, this process encounter problems related to: specification target (new "sloping" corridor, actualization old various forms); probable decrease its level due European integration; criterion values GDP gap neutral rate when assessing stance; resuming accumulation foreign exchange reserves with corresponding continuation tendency maintain liquidity structural surplus. independence NBU play key role neutralizing credibility problem potential alternative between speed stabilization economic recovery.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Ekonomìka Ukraïni
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2522-9478', '2522-9303']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2022.10.015